Biosimilar competition may take a bigger bite out of branded sales than we think. The top 10 biologics facing biosimilar competition will see sales fall to $49 billion by 2020, consensus estimates say. Thats down from $62 billion last year. But according to Morningstar analysts, that 2020 sales number is too high.

 

In their view, biosimilars will strike sales of that group all the way down to $35 billion, Morningstar said in its latest Healthcare Observer report.

Which companies will bear the brunt of those losses? AbbVie ($ABBV) stands to lose the most, the analysts wrote, with biosimilars descending on key moneymaker Humira--a drug that brings in 60% of revenue. Roche ($RHHBY) and Amgen ($AMGN) will each have a trio of drugs--Rituxan, Herceptin and Avastin, and Neupogen, Neulasta and Epogen, respectively--under biosimilar attack.

For Roche and Amgen, though, there are bright sides to the story. Despite high biosimilar risk for the Swiss pharma giant, new products such as Perjeta and Gazyva, and the rest of Roches pipeline "support a steady wide moat" of protection for future revenue, the analysts wrote. For Amgen, cost-cutting and its pipeline "mitigate exposure," they said.